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To be published in 2018

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Evidence-based Unified Growth Theory

Economic growth and the growth of human population in the past 2,000,000 years are closely examined.Earlier explanations offered by the Unified Growth Theoryare scientifically unacceptable because (1) data used during the formulation of this theory were never mathematically analysed, (2) data were systematically distorted to support preconceived ideas and (3) earlier contradicting evidence was ignored.Precisely the same data, which in their distorted way were used to support of the Unified Growth Theory, are in its clear contradiction. Past socio-economic conditions,described in this theory, have no bearing on the explanation of growth trajectories. Data used in support of the Demographic Transition Theory were also never mathematically analysed and the obviously contradicting data were systematically ignored. This theory is also contradicted by data, even by the same data, which were used in its support. Growth of human population and economic growth in the past 2,000,000 years was steadily increasing by following exceptionally stable hyperbolic trajectories. Regional growth and even growth in individual countries were also preferably hyperbolic. In order to understand the past dynamics of growth it is essential to understand hyperbolic growth. The mechanism of hyperbolic growth of human population and of economic growth is now explained.

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Analysis of War on Terror Intensification Years in Pakistan (2007-2009)

Current collapse of Pakistan’s economic growth rates challenge the economic prosperity achieved during 2003-2006 period. In Pakistan’s case, it was rather clear. With intensification of WOT post 2006, Pakistan is currently witnessing yet more challenging economic circumstances. Though, the exogenous factors which relate to current economic situation are generally associated with rise in oil prices, energy crises, global financial crises and commodity price hike, there is need also to include factors like WOT into the paradigm. Armed conflict within a country also affects the economic potential of the country. It has been nearly a decade now that Pakistan had been participating in the WOT as a front line ally. The conflict has deepened the structural problems within different sectors of Pakistan’s economy.

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Agrarian and Rural Revitalisation Issues in China and Bulgaria

Around the globe, revitalization of agrarian and rural sector is one of the most topical issues for farmers, agrarian and rural communities, interest groups, researchers, investors, policymakers, and the public at large. In China and Bulgaria there are numerous publications on individual issues of agrarian and rural revitalization and sustainable development. Despite enormous progress in the theory and practice in that important new area, there are few comprehensive studies on the entire spectrum of agrarian and rural revitalization issuesin these two countries, and on their interactions with public policies, private and collective strategies and forms, market and technological development, social and communities’ dynamics, etc. What is more, there are no join and comparative studies on Chinese and Bulgarian experiences, despite quite similar historical development, fundamental transformation and modernization in the last several decades, and alike socio-economic and environmental challenges at current stage of development. This book is the result of an on-going research cooperation of the teams from the leading academic institutions in China and Bulgaria such as Shanghai Jiao Tong University in Shanghai, Communication University of China in Beijing, Institute of Agricultural Economics in Sofia, Agrarian University in Plovdiv, and University of National and World Economy in Sofia.

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The Solution is Full Reserve / 100% Reserve Banking

Section 1 of this work argues the case for full reserve banking. Section 2 explains the flaws in a large number of arguments put AGAINST full reserve, and section 3 explains the flaws in a few arguments put IN FAVOUR of full reserve. This book is a slightly updated version of an online paper with the same title. The main changes / improvements are to section 1.4.

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Employing Transgender in Organization: Workplace Discrimination Challenges

The book explores the challenges an organization face when transgender persons are employed. One of the challenges is workplace discrimination issue against the transgender employees. Further, the role of transformational leadership has been examined in dealing with workplace discrimination issues. The study is based on qualitative analysis where in the validity and credibility of the study is ensured using data triangulation i.e. data is collected through unstructured interviews, participant observation and documents & pictures. Also, source triangulation i.e. different categories of respondents included 6 transgender employees, 6 other employees who works closely with transgender employees, 3 HR personnel, and the Executive Director Akhuwat. The study supports the role of transformational leadership in handling workplace discrimination. The values & principles, like respect and brotherhood are the core factors affecting the workplace discrimination against transgender employees. Especially, in absence of formalized HR policies and regulations, the values & principles plays a pivotal role. Such values of brotherhood and respect encourages the employees to hold a non-discriminatory organizational culture. Data shows the transgender employees are more hardworking, motivated, loyal and satisfied for merely being respected and recognized by the organization. This study of transgender employment experiences and the role of transformational leadership opens new lines of inquiry for understanding gender inequalities at work, and it builds on scholarship that combines political, social and economic approaches with transgender studies.

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Pakistan’s Trade Competitiveness & Complementarities in South Asia

Over the past decade Pakistan remained involved in two major trade agreements with in the South Asia (Pakistan & Sri-Lanka FTA and SAFTA). It is meaningful from an operational and policy perspective to evaluate Pakistan’s trade performance in South Asia against its objectives of greater trade integration and suggest policy interventions to improve its effectiveness. In order to achieve this objective, current study evaluates the Pakistan’s overall and chapter-wise trade performance with SAARC major SAARC economies for the last seven years (2003-09). This study has been disaggregated into two parts: In the first part of the study, an assessment of trade performance of SAARC members is carried out with respect to the rest of the world. Pakistan’s trade performance vis-à-vis other SAARC members is the focus of this part. In the second part Pakistan’s trade performance in South Asia has been analyzed and policy interventions have been suggested to improve its effectiveness. Certain trade indicators like Trade Complementarity Index (TCI), Trade Specialization Index (TSI), Grubel Lloyd Index (GLI), Revealed Comparative Analysis (RCA), Bilateral Revealed Comparative Analysis BRCAs and Revealed Market Access (RMA) have been employed to achieve the above objectives.

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Economic Impacts of the 2010 Floods in North Sindh: A Hicksian Compensating Variation Approach

Present study has applied Hicksian Compensating Variation approach for empirical estimation of the welfare loss in the households of the four selected districts of North Sindh (Qamber Shahdadkot, Kashmore-Kandhkot, Jacobabad and Shikarpur) that were severely affected during flood 2010. The income and substitution effects were estimated from Marshallian demand curves. Slutsky equation is applied to isolate the income effect from the total effect to estimate the Hicksian demand equations. The total intervention estimated to be required was approximately PKR 61.16 billion in the four selected districts however the total intervention provided in the form of rescue, relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction was equal to PKR 47.2 billion. A short fall of approximately PKR 15 billion was observed. The Hicksian Compensation required estimated per household per month is to the tune of PKR 11703 per month.

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Academic Stress and Strain among Muslim Students: The Moderating Effect of Religious Orientation

The book analyzes academic stress and strain among the undergraduate students of the International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM). It aims at investigating the effect of religious orientation on level of stress and experience of strain among those students. The sample consists of 218 bachelor’s students studying in different departments of this university. The sample was composed of around 75% of Malay students and 25% of non-Malay. In terms of gender, it was 55% female and 45% male. Data were collected from the stressful situations questionnaire (SSQ) and role strain measures. Frequency analysis was used to examine the level of stress, strain, and religious orientation in the students. The results indicated that all the students in general experienced stress and strain and they also used religious orientation as coping mechanism, but they differed in degree of stress, strain, and religious experience. A series of analysis were done to examine the relationship between criterion and predictor variables, such as gender and nationality. With regard to gender differences, the results indicated that there was a significant difference in the perception of male and female toward stress and religious orientation, but they are not different in their level of strain. Female students reported more stress and they tended to use more religious orientation than do male students. Moreover, there appeared no significant main difference in the perception of Malay and non-Malay students toward stress, but it did appear on strain and religious orientation. Malay students were found to experience more strain and they made more frequent use of religious orientation than did non-Malay students. The analysis also indicated that religious orientation has nothing to do with stress and strain level. That is, whether the students were religious or not they did experience stress and strain.

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Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis

This book investigates the weak form efficiency of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) employing Autocorrelation test, Runs test and Unit Root tests, and the nature  of volatility characteristics of stock returns applying GARCH family models in Bangladesh stock market using daily all share price index return data of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) from 02 January 1993 to 27 January 2013. The thesis also examines  the semi-strong form of the EMH of DSE based on macroeconomic variable version  of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) applying Cointegration tests, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests, and the volatility of the DSE returns in response to the volatility of the macroeconomic variables employing GARCH family models using monthly data from January 2001 to December 2012.  In addition, the short run and long run relationships between macroeconomic variables and aggregate stock prices in Bangladesh have also been determined. Employing both nonparametric tests (Runs test and Phillips-Perron test) and parametric tests (Autocorrelation test and Augmented Dickey-fuller test), this thesis finds that the Dhaka Stock Exchange of Bangladesh is not weak form efficient. The  Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration tests reveal that industrial  production  index (IPI) and crude oil  price (OP) have significant negative long run  relationships with all share price index (DSI) of DSE, while money supply (MS), exchange rate (ER) and Indian stock prices (SENSEX) have significant positive long run relationship with all share price index of DSE. Results of VECM indicate that there is a long run causality running from IPI, M2, OP, ER and SENSEX to DSI. The error correction term of first differenced DSI implies that 15% of the last month’s disequilibrium becomes corrected monthly. The VECM results also show that DSI picks up the disequilibrium quickly and guides the variables of the system back to equilibrium. Results of VECM Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald test and Granger causality test reveal that individually IPI, CMR and SENSEX are the leading indicators with respect to stock prices in Bangladesh in the short run. Moreover, stock price index of DSE is a leading indicator with respect to IPI and ER in the short run. Taking the outcome of VAR models into account, it is found that all selected macroeconomic variables do significantly explain the stock prices of the Bangladesh stock market. As a consequence, it may be concluded that the Bangladesh stock market is not efficient in the semi-strong form of EMH. Results of the estimated MA(1)-GARCH(1,1) model show that the stock market of Bangladesh captures volatility clustering and the volatility is moderately persistent. The estimated MA(1)-EGARCH(1,1) model reveals that the effect of bad news on stock market volatility is greater than the effect induced by good news. Results of six GARCH-S models indicate that there is significant positive relationship between the changes in exchange rate (ER) and the volatility of DSE returns. Results also imply that the growth of the broad money supply (M2) and the volatility of Indian stock market (SENSEX) have significant negative relationship with the volatility of Dhaka stock exchange returns. Therefore, we can conclude that the stock market of Bangladesh is not efficient in weak and semi-strong form, and consequently, investors can earn abnormal profit using publicly available information. Stock market returns of Bangladesh exhibit leptokurtosis, volatility clustering and leverage effect or asymmetric volatility. The volatility of DSE return is significantly influenced by the volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as, ER, M2 and SENSEX.