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2018 Collection

By Ron W. Nielsen

Unified Growth Theory published by Oded Galor is called unified because it puts together earlier attempts to explain the historical economic growth and the historical growth of population. These attempts were made over many years and by now they form the established knowledge in economics and in demography. Unfortunately, the past research was difficult because (1) access to data was strongly limited and (2) growth turns out to be represented by strongly deceptive distributions. They create an illusion of stagnation followed by a sudden explosion, while in fact they increase monotonically all the time and there is no sudden transition from a slow to fast growth. Data represented by these distributions have to be carefully and methodically analysed; otherwise conclusions are based on illusions. <More>

By Ralph S. Musgrave

FR is sometimes called “100% reserve banking”, while German speakers use the word “Vollgeld”.The following few paragraphs are a brief summary of FR. Commercial banks create money when they make loans, as explained by an article published by the Bank of England – McLeay (2014) And that freedom to create money is a subsidy of banks, for reasons given by for example Huber (2000, p.31, 2nd paragraph). As Huber says, if commercial banks can simply print the money they lend out, rather than obtain such money in the same way every non bank firm obtains money, i.e. earn it or borrow it, then commercial banks can lend at an artificially low rate of interest. Or to put it more strongly, as explained by the Nobel laureate economist, Maurice Allais, private money creation amounts to counterfeiting. <More>

By Sule Akkoyunlu

The adoption of agricultural innovations is crucial for economic growth as well as economic development. However, in order to help leverage the adoption and diffusion of innovative practices, it is important to understand the process of agricultural innovation and its determinants. Using data derived from interviews, published materials, and observations, this study identifies the key factors that determine agricultural innovations in Turkey. Based on these insights, the paper identifies the characteristics of innovative farmers and suggests policy strategies to encourage agricultural innovations. The analysis shows that agricultural innovations are taking place in Turkey and various public and private stakeholders contribute to the development and adoption of innovation in agriculture. <More>

By Dawood Mamoon & Sohail Paracha

Over the past decade Pakistan remained involved in two major trade agreements with in the South Asia (Pakistan & Sri-Lanka FTA and SAFTA). It is meaningful from an operational and policy perspective to evaluate Pakistan’s trade performance in South Asia against its objectives of greater trade integration and suggest policy interventions to improve its effectiveness. In order to achieve this objective, current study evaluates the Pakistan’s overall and chapter-wise trade performance with SAARC major SAARC economies for the last seven years (2003-09). This study has been disaggregated into two parts: In the first part of the study, an assessment of trade performance of SAARC members is carried out with respect to the rest of the world. Pakistan’s trade performance vis-à-vis other SAARC members is the focus of this part. In the second part Pakistan’s trade performance in South Asia has been analyzed and policy interventions have been suggested to improve its effectiveness. <More>

By Ron W. Nielsen

Unified Growth Theory published by Oded Galor is called unified because it puts together earlier attempts to explain the historical economic growth and the historical growth of population. These attempts were made over many years and by now they form the established knowledge in economics and in demography. Unfortunately, the past research was difficult because (1) access to data was strongly limited and (2) growth turns out to be represented by strongly deceptive distributions. They create an illusion of stagnation followed by a sudden explosion, while in fact they increase monotonically all the time and there is no sudden transition from a slow to fast growth. Data represented by these distributions have to be carefully and methodically analysed; otherwise conclusions are based on illusions. <More>

By Ralph S. Musgrave

Under the existing bank system, it is not just central banks and governments which create money: commercial banks do so as well. Many leading economists, including at least five Nobel laureate economists, have had doubts as to whether commercial banks should be allowed to do that. Indeed one of those Nobel laureates, Maurice Allais, described money creation by commercial banks as counterfeiting. “Full reserve” and “100% reserve” are names given to bank systems where commercial banks are not allowed to create or “print” money, or at least where that money creation is curtailed. Other names include “Sovereign Money” and “Vollgeld”. <More>

By Mario Coccia

One of the most significant topics in economics and social sciences is to explain the active role that science and technological innovation play in the economic and social change of nations. Firstly, the term innovation and science advances are used so widely to indicate something new and different. However, this definition doesn’t tell us how we would recognize an innovation and science advances, how we could categorize them, how to explain their origin and evolution, as well as how to measure them in markets and society. The goal of this book is to explain some characteristics of technological innovation and science in society. In particular, this book focuses on new researches that can clarify the origins of studies concerning science and innovation, the categorization of innovation, the sources and aspects of the evolution of innovation and some techniques to measure technological advances and predict which technologies are likely to evolve rapidly in society. <More>

By Imtiaz Ahmed Pirzada, Parveen Shah & Naveed Ahmed Shaikh

This Present study has applied Hicksian Compensating Variation approach for empirical estimation of the welfare loss in the households of the four selected districts of North Sindh (Qamber Shahdadkot, Kashmore-Kandhkot, Jacobabad and Shikarpur) that were severely affected during flood 2010. The income and substitution effects were estimated from Marshallian demand curves. Slutsky equation is applied to isolate the income effect from the total effect to estimate the Hicksian demand equations. The total intervention estimated to be required was approximately PKR 61.16 billion in the four selected districts however the total intervention provided in the form of rescue, relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction was equal to PKR 47.2 billion. <More>

By Ron W. Nielsen

Unified Growth Theory published by Oded Galor is called unified because it puts together earlier attempts to explain the historical economic growth and the historical growth of population. These attempts were made over many years and by now they form the established knowledge in economics and in demography. Unfortunately, the past research was difficult because (1) access to data was strongly limited and (2) growth turns out to be represented by strongly deceptive distributions. They create an illusion of stagnation followed by a sudden explosion, while in fact they increase monotonically all the time and there is no sudden transition from a slow to fast growth. Data represented by these distributions have to be carefully and methodically analysed; otherwise conclusions are based on illusions. <More>

By Ralph S. Musgrave

This book consists of a series of working papers written by the author and published by the Munich Personal RePEc Archive between 2006 and 2011 inclusive. The extent to which the ideas in each paper have subsequently been revised or updated by the author in later publications varies from paper to paper. This is a rough guide to how much revision there has been. <More>

By Vaqar Zafar Ahmed & Dawood Mamoon

Over the past decade Pakistan remained involved in two major trade agreements with in the South Asia (Pakistan & Sri-Lanka FTA and SAFTA). It is meaningful from an operational and policy perspective to evaluate Pakistan’s trade performance in South Asia against its objectives of greater trade integration and suggest policy interventions to improve its effectiveness. In order to achieve this objective, current study evaluates the Pakistan’s overall and chapter-wise trade performance with SAARC major SAARC economies for the last seven years (2003-09). This study has been disaggregated into two parts: In the first part of the study, an assessment of trade performance of SAARC members is carried out with respect to the rest of the world.  <More>

By Hrabrin Bachev, Shengquan Che & Svetla Yancheva (Eds.)

Around the globe, revitalization of agrarian and rural sector is one of the most topical issues for farmers, agrarian and rural communities, interest groups, researchers, investors, policymakers, and the public at large. In China and Bulgaria there are numerous publications on individual issues of agrarian and rural revitalization and sustainable development. Despite enormous progress in the theory and practice in that important new area, there are few comprehensive studies on the entire spectrum of agrarian and rural revitalization issuesin these two countries, and on their interactions with public policies, private and collective strategies and forms, market and technological development, social and communities’ dynamics, etc. <More>

By Ana Paula Martins

This book inspects the interdependencies among social disruption signals and their relationship to economic conditions as emerging from available Portuguese time series. Comparisons with international cross-section evidence are provided. Three types of innovations are presented: firstly, it searches for interactions – and common causes – between indicators of general aggressiveness or pro-activity that include accident, suicide, divorce rates and armed forces along with criminality records. Secondly, it illustrates theoretical applications of principal components: in time series filtering; in cross-correlation and corresponding significance-level probabilities analysis; in the treatment of missing cases. Finally, estimators based on observational replicability of second moments are proposed.

By Bachar Fakhry

The efficient market hypothesis has been around since 1962, the theory based on a simple rule that states the price of any asset must fully reflect all available information. Yet there is empirical evidence suggesting that markets are too volatile to be efficient. In essence, this evidence seems to suggest that the reaction of the market participants to the information or events that is the crucial factor, rather than the actual information. This highlights the need to include the behavioural finance theory in the pricing of assets. Essentially, the research aims to analyse the efficiency of six key sovereign debt markets during a period of changing volatility including the recent global financial and sovereign debt crises. We analyse the markets in the pre-crisis period and during the financial and sovereign debt crises to determine the impact of the crises on the efficiency of these financial markets. We use two GARCH-based variance bound tests to test the null hypothesis of the market being too volatile to be efficient. Proposing a GJR-GARCH variant of the variance bound test to account for variation in the asymmetrical effect. This leads to an analysis of the changing behaviour of price volatility to identify what makes the market efficient or inefficient. In general, our EMH tests resulted in mixed results, hinting at the acceptance of the null hypothesis of the market being too volatile to be efficient. However, interestingly a number of 2017 observations under both models seem to be hinting at the rejection of the null hypothesis. Furthermore, our proposed GJR-GARCH variant of the variance bound test seems to be more likely to accept the EMH than the GARCH variant of the test.

By Falih M. Alsaaty & Hany H. Makhlouf

The main theme of this book is that entrepreneurship has become a global phenomenon, having spread widely throughout the world, and is considered a major force behind economic prosperity, job growth, and wealth creation. Its close relationship with the introduction of innovative products, new business models, and production technologies has added to its mystique and broad appeal. In addition to the growing interest in business-oriented entrepreneurship, there has been a revival, in recent years, of interest in social entrepreneurship which aims at introducing radical innovative solutions to social and environmental problems that the free market and governments have failed to address or solve. This book discusses the state of entrepreneurship from both the domestic and global perspectives. It also explores how entrepreneurial enterprises can establish and sustain a culture of innovation that would increase their competitive advantage and prospects for long-term survival and growth. The thesis in this presentation is that entrepreneurship and innovation are inseparable; and that small/ entrepreneurial firms often have an advantage over many large firms in innovating and introducing desirable changes. Three chapters are devoted to introducing potential entrepreneurs to different kinds of entrepreneurship, mainly social entrepreneurship, e-entrepreneurship, and international entrepreneurship. This exposure makes it possible for them to choose from these alternatives in planning their new ventures. What these different types of entrepreneurship have in common is that they provide individuals – who have entrepreneurial spirit, zeal and skills- with an opportunity to introduce their innovative ideas, models, and technologies that would make a difference in the marketplace or in society at large. An added contribution of this book is the appendices that present a step-by-step guide to planning new ventures, factors that are considered in seeking and getting bank loans as a part of the start-up capital, and export procedures and guidelines. These appendices are presented in a simple and clear manner in order to ease the concerns of those who have no prior experience in starting a business or in getting into the global market as exporters of goods and services.

Economics

By Oded Kafri

In this collection of papers, it shown that the “order”which is generated around us by evolution and the results of our doing can be explained by the propensity of entropy to increase; namely, by the second law of thermodynamics. Entropy is conceived by many as a disorder, however, that is true only for spares systems. In a dense system, entropy is information thatis characterized by a long tail distribution. In order to apply the second law to sociology and economy, we have to define a sociological net. With analogy to the internet, in which, in principle, every site can receive and broadcast information to any other site we can describe economic network as a group of bank accounts that each one of them canreceive or pay money to any other account. The distribution of links between the sites is similar to that of money in the bank accounts. This long tail distribution,whichis obtained by maximizing the entropy of the net, is called Planck-Benford distribution. It is also shown that Planck-Benford distribution can predict polls distribution; Gini inequality Index in the OECD countries;the percentage of the relative poverty; the salaries of the CEO’s relative to the average salaries and the number of employees. Moreover, the Planck-Benford income distribution, being an equilibrium distribution (Max Entropy), can provide a standard tool for estimatingthe stability of the economy of a given country namely closer the income distribution of a country to Planck Benford distribution closer the economy to equilibrium.

By Sirma Sonmezer

The main purpose of this study is to understand the impact of age on work values, organizational commitment and work centrality. In this respect, it is hypothezied that there are differences in work values, organizational commitment, and work centrality among age groups. In addition, therelationship of organizational commitment with work values, and work centrality in different age groups is explored. The study was conducted in Istanbul, Turkey with the participation of 935 university graduate, corporate white-collar employees of large companies in Istanbul. In-depth interviews were conducted for the qualitative stage and a web-based survey was administered for the quantitative stage of data collection. An important contribution of this study is the emic items identified for the Turkish work context. These emic itemsare suggested to be incorporatedtowork values inventory for future research. The results indicateddifferences in work values, and organizational commitment levels among different age groups as well as changes among age groups in the level of importance of work. It was confirmed that there is a relationship between work values and organizational commitment, and between work centrality and organizational commitment. The results of the study also showed that work values differ according to gender.

By Rabia Bashir, Sami Bajwa, & Dawood Mamoon

This study is carried out to analyze the factors that results in conversion of borrowers into donors. The findings assist the microfinance institutions in coming up with the most appropriate measures to apply in order to eliminate not only defaults but also gain some financial sustainability by improving its donor profile. The study establishes that religious education and organizational religious philosophy influence borrower’s prosocial behaviors. Through religious teaching Akhuwat inculcate sense of responsibility, feeling of gratitude and psychological attachment, along with spiritual satisfaction to motivate borrowers to become donors. Being faith inspired organization; Akhuwat culture and its brand image depict strong association with Islamic value. The study recommends that the MFIs in order to enjoy a cordial relationship need to align their business philosophy with the local culture.

By Hrabrin Bachev

On March 11, 2011 the strongest ever recorded in Japan earthquake occurred which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in one of the world’s largest nuclear plant stations. The triple disaster has been having immense impacts on people’s life, health and property, social infrastructure, economy, policies, natural and institutional environment, etc. in the affected regions, Japan, and beyond. This book tries to make a comprehensive assessment on the multiple impacts of the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear accident on the Japanese agriculture and food sector. It identifies and evaluates radiation, displacement, health, physiological, production, economic, technological, organizational, environmental, institutional, political, etc. impacts of the disasters in all stages (inputs supply, farming, storage, wholesaling, transportation, processing, distribution, retailing, consumption) and components (natural resources, labor, biological and material assets, intangibles, technology, production structure, finance, waste disposal, information, management) of agri-food chain, and temporal (immediate, short-term, long-term) and spacial (local, regional, national, trans-national) scales. It summarizes responses of individuals, households, farms, businesses, communities, consumers, stakeholders, and authorities as well as assesses the progress and challenges in the post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. The book withdraws lessons from the Japanese experiences and suggests recommendations for effective risk management in Japan and around the globe. The study is based on a wide range of information from governmental, academic, farmers, industry, international, etc. organizations, media, experts assessments and in-deep interviews with leading experts, stakeholders, and affected agents. Findings are presented in a popular way in order to reach a larger audience of researchers, educators, students, experts, farmers, businessmen, administrators, policy makers, professionals, non-governmental and international organizations, consumers, victims, and public at large.

By Dawood Mamoon

Economic and Social Horizons in Pakistan Vol.1

By Ana Paula Martins

This research explores the real effects of the monetization of a stylized one-sector capital growth model driven by rational representative agents. On the one hand, it introduces the appropriate adjustment to the state variable dynamic accounting equation to reflect a (paper) cash-in-advance or trade money finance constraint in the presence of exogenous real reserve requirements. Such constraint embeds real convertibility – even if not for idle real reserves-, conformable with the role of money as both general means of payment, unit of account and store of value, and with the purchase of money at the inverse of the (real product) general price level. Commodity money then arises as the special case of a 100% (real…) required reserve ratio. On the other, it suggests generalizations of the state equation that (also) encompass product immobilization – production-before-expenditure – constraints, as well as delays, or even real losses, along the money creation process, that, as the CIA assumption, reflect on inventory stock rotation. Additionally, one concludes that efficient outcomes require the use of (at least) two policy instruments. Two types of objective functions are considered: a standard accumulated discounted felicity function; and a point-wise utility function embedding bequest motives. Generalizations assuming taste for nominal growth at the utility level were staged for each case – taste for inflation may reflect psychological traits, compounding to and of similar nature to time discounting, implying distaste for increases in the (real) size of the nominal unit of account, working similarly to money illusion – possibly, to nominal discounting of utility over nominal arguments. Also, productivity enhancement due to nominal growth – working, say, through ease of inventory drainage – was simulated. Technically (mathematically), the hypotheses are convenient to generate non-negative growth of optimal per capita nominal money balances – and, therefore, prices – along the (and…) steady states. In real economies, price stability insures the constancy of money as measurement unit; such devices allowed to at least achieve a stable (non-negative) balanced inflation growth rate – but are consistent with residual barter trade of unsold merchandise. Nominal MIU was therefore also tested, as felicity functions combining real as nominal consumption as arguments. The analysis relies on a discrete methodology. A storable good economy is briefly confronted with some of the structures. Contrast (and merger) with a high-powered money supply multiplier mechanism is also briefly outlined. Time interval between transactions, the money rotation period, is endogenised.

By Tai-Yuen Hon

We compile ten of KSP Journals articles published during 2015 to 2016 in this volume. This volume includes the part I monetarism: we review both the theoretical as well as empirical literature relevant to monetarism and examine the empirical study on causality relationship between money, income, price and exchange rates (3 articles); the part II behavioral finance we analyze the behavior of Hong Kong small investors in stock markets and derivatives markets (4 articles); we discuss foreign-invested enterprises and sourcing in China, online securities trading service in Hong Kong (3 articles in commentaries) investors in the Hong Kong stock market.

By Dawood Mamoon (Editor)

Economic Analysis on Pakistan

By Hrabran Bachev & Fusao Ito

On March 11, 2011 the strongest ever recorded in Japan earthquake occurred, also known as the Great East Japan Earthquake, which triggered a powerful tsunami and caused a nuclear accident in one of the world biggest nuclear power stations – Fukushima Daichi. More than six years after the triple disaster the overall impacts on Japanese agri-food chains is far from being completelydue to the scale of the disasters and the number of affected agents, the effects’ multiplicities, spillovers, and long time horizon, the constant evolution of the nuclear crisis, the lack of “full” information and models of analysis, etc. This paper presents updates on the impacts of the March 2011 earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan on country’s agriculture and food sector. First, disaster events and their effects is outlined. Second, impact on farms and agricultural resources is estimated. Third, impact on food industries is assessed. Next, extend of radioactive contamination of agri-food products is presented and effects on markets, consumers and international trade evaluated. Chapter summarises responses of different agents, assesses progress and challenges in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, and withdrawlessons from the Japanese experiences.

By Sergey Ivanov

This research explores the requisite relationship between managers and their subordinates in managerial hierarchies as stipulated by a general theory of managerial hierarchy (GTMH) developed by Dr. Elliott Jaques. Dr. Jaques writes, “When managers and immediate subordinates are in roles in adjacent layers, things can work well; if within same layer, the manager is “breathing down the necks” of the subordinates; if more than one layer apart, the manager is “pulled down in the weeds”. Jaques’ empirical finding of the Manager-Subordinate Relationship (MSR) describes how a subordinate, in a managerial hierarchy, feels towards the manager, and how the manager feels towards the subordinate. Optimum MSR is achieved when the subordinate feels just right towards the manager. In Optimum MSR, the manager also feels just right towards the subordinate and that the subordinate does not “pull the manager into the weeds.” In the non-Optimal Manager-Subordinate Relationship (non-effective management according to Dr. Jaques’ theory), the subordinate reports either that the manager is too close (breathing down the necks), or too far (pulled down into the weeds). The manager in non-Optimum MSR also reports either of the two conditions: that the subordinate is either too close or too far. The relationship between the working stratum of managers and subordinates and Jaques’ manager-subordinate relationship-types has not been tested. This study is the first attempt to test these specific theoretical propositions developed by Jaques, and possibly advance general theory of managerial hierarchy. The study’s primary research question is whether there is a relationship between the working roles of the managers and subordinates, and Jaques’ MSR. The study’s exploratory secondary research question attempts to discover the effects of the current potential capability of manager and subordinate on the MSR as defined by Jaques and Cason. The effects of current potential capability on the MSR are not described by general theory of managerial hierarchy, though Dr. Jaques discussed privately with the author the possibility that capabilities may play a significant part (in addition to the working stratum), impacting the manager-subordinate relationship. The exploratory proposition of the secondary question is whether MSR correlates strongly when the manager’s role is one stratum higher than the subordinate’s role and the manager’s current potential capability (CPC) corresponds with the manager’s role stratum, and the subordinate’s current potential capability corresponds with the subordinate’s role stratum. The author believes it is possible to test the primary research question, and thus, test this aspect of the theory (this proposition has not been tested). Furthermore, the secondary question could potentially advance the theory relating capabilities of managers and subordinates to their working strata.

By Sitki Sonmezer

Relatively higher return expectations, tax exempt environment, low correlation with the returns in developed markets, and the ongoing European accession process have attracted non-domestic funds to the ISE recently. In this period, it is seen that foreign inflows have broadened the investor base and have affected security prices. The price impact of a 1 % increase in the share of foreign funds according to the market capitalization, results in an increase of 2.77 % – 3.57 % in the returns of the ISE 30. Foreign inflows have significant influence on the ISE even after controlling for the omitted variables used in this thesis. It has also been determined that non-domestic funds chase returns and engage in positive feedback trading when they invest in the ISE. The scope of this book is the effects of foreign order flow and resulting change in the liquidity levels, on stock returns. Even though there are numerous studies about the effects of order flow on stock prices and the relationship between liquidity and stock prices have also been studied widely in the literature, the impact of foreign participation on a market is relatively undermined in the literature. One of the reasons may be the fact that the differentiation of order flows as domestic flows and foreign flows became popular in the last two decades when foreign investors increased their significance and dominance in these markets. Developing Information Technology and pervasiveness of internet enabled funds to flow in and out of countries and consequently, researchers aimed to assess whether foreign funds are detrimental or not to the markets they study. Moreover, the existing studies that examine the effects of order flows mostly cover the developed markets where foreign funds are usually a minority but ISE is heavily dominated by foreign funds, the participation rate of foreigners equal to % 66.55 as of 20-11 2009 and this market may give out promising outcomes as it is an emerging market that doesn’t have much prominence in the related literature.

By Dawood Mamoon & Silvia Hernandez

In this book we analyze the institutional arrangement between various actors to understand how ICT project objectives flow among actors in a standard LINCOS project and how they would affect the sustainability and effectiveness of LINCOS in particular and an ICT project in general. Since there are many actors involved in different stages and processes of a single LINCOS project, the paper analyses the bilateral and multilateral relationships among these actors to understand the factors that might affect the efficiency of the ICT project. In other words the paper looks at the actors involved in a LINCOS project in an effort to capture those circumstances under which a LINCOS project is exposed to principal- agent problems.

By Edouard Novatorov

The objectives of the study were (a) to identify the reasons and concerns of those public administrators and marketing scholars who do not accept the usefulness of marketing in the public sector; (b) to deconstruct, comprehend, interpret, and critically appraise the current conceptualization of public sector marketing from the viewpoint of negativists identified in step (a); and (c) to reconstruct, redefine, reinterpret, and reoperationalize the current controversial conceptualization of public sector marketing into a new conceptualization in the context of park and recreation services. The critical theory approach to the study primary used non-empirical procedures data collection and analytic procedures which included investigative research, negative case analysis, and theoretical triangulation. These procedures were supplemented with empirical data collected from in-depth interviews with five scholars and with three parks and recreation managers. Results of the non-empirical procedures revealed the biased selective nature of the current conceptualization of public park and recreation marketing and the existence of alternative conceptualizations which have been ignored. The existing and alternative models were discussed with scholars and park and recreation managers. Support was found for the alternative models. From these data an alternative conceptualization of public park and recreation marketing was developed and named the concept of administered marketing. Implications for park and recreation managers are discussed. Directions for future research into the administratively managed park and recreation marketing concept are suggested.

By Dawood Mamoon

Economic and Social Horizons in Pakistan Vol.2